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Solar payback time: assumptions and descriptions

Payback times for solar panels

The assumptions and descriptions that explain the figures show in our ‘Payback times for solar panels’ article.

ATA Model Assumptions (Updated March 2013):System size: 2.0 kW

  • System cost (fully installed, before payment for STCs): $4,400
  • STC price: $30
  • Electricity export rate:
    • For net feed-in tariff jurisdictions (i.e. QLD, SA, NSW, Victoria and WA), ATA modelled two scenarios where a household exports 30% or 50% of the total electricity generation from their solar PV system into the grid.
    • For gross feed-in tariff jurisdictions (i.e. Tasmania, NT and ACT), ATA modelled 100% export of the total electricity generation from their solar PV system into the grid.
  • The following Zones were used for the purpose of STC calculation:
    • NT: Zone 1 (Alice Springs)
    • QLD: Zones 1 – 3
    • SA: Zone 3
    • Tasmania: Zone 4
    • Victoria: Zone 4
    • WA: Zone 3 (Perth)
    • NSW: Zone 3 (Sydney)
    • ACT: Zone 3
  • System degradation rate: 0.5% per annum
  • Value of feed-in tariff: See table below
    • NSW – The NSW feed-in tariff is no longer regulated and ATA has used the higher value of 8 c/kWh, currently offered by some retailers.
    • WA – The modelling uses the Synergy network feed-in tariff rate and does not take into account the higher feed-in tariffs available in the Horizon Power network for certain towns and remote locations.
    • ACT / Tas – These states currently offer a feed-in rate to match the rate paid for electricity purchased from the grid (i.e. 25c / kWh).
  • Value of electricity consumption purchased from the grid: 25 c/kWh
  • Inverter is replaced after 15 years at a cost of $800
  • Annual increase in retail electricity price: 0.25% (equivalent to 6.4% increase over 25 years)
    • This value is based on the forecasts for eastern states by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) in the report “ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMATION PAPER – National Electricity Forecasting 2012”.
  • Discount rate: 5%
  • Ranges in payback for some locations (e.g. 8-10 years) is due to the range of STC zones within that state.